Conference reconstruction inevitable for college football

This column was originally published with The Red & Black on June 17, 2015 and can be found here.

This week marks the five-year anniversary of one of the strangest times in the history of college football.

In a matter of days, Nebraska and Colorado bolted from the Big 12, Texas and Oklahoma flirted with other conferences and Utah moved up from the Mountain West to join the Pac-10. The strange summer of 2010 set off moves that are still happening, and at this point 34 Football Bowl Subdivision teams have new homes, and one conference — the Western Athletic Conference — no longer exists.

While nothing may ever be as crazy as the few days in June 2010, conference realignment hasn’t stopped. The idea of four 16-team power conferences still looms large, and a quick addition by the 14-team Big Ten Conference could start this domino effect. This season features a few minimal changes, including Navy joining the American Athletic Conference and Charlotte moving from the Football Championship Subdivision level to Conference USA. It may take a few years to happen, but here are three conference realignment moves that I think will occur:

1. BYU joins the Big 12. The Cougars gambled when they left the Mountain West after the 2010 season. It looked like a decent move in the beginning, as the Cougars won ten games their first season as an Independent school and finished the season ranked No. 25. Then the Southeastern Conference and Atlantic Coast Conference, which require its teams to play at least one out-of-conference Power 5 opponent, announced BYU would not fill this requirement.

This was a strange decision. BYU has been one of the best mid-major schools over the last decade and have nine more wins over the last ten seasons than Notre Dame, a football program in the ACC. While the commissioners have softened their stance on the Cougars, it led BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall to say the team needs to join a Power 5 conference in three years.

Although the Pac-12 may make more sense geographically, the Big 12 is still hurting from losing Texas A&M, Nebraska and Colorado. The conference is stuck on ten teams and in need of adding on to keep up with the other conferences as far as the College Football Playoff is concerned. BYU isn’t a home run addition, but it helps the Big 12 expand west and adds another solid team to the fold.

2. The Mountain West adds North Dakota State. The Bison have absolutely dominated the Football Championship Subdivision, winning 58 games and four consecutive national championships since 2010. With teams like Georgia Southern and Appalachian State making the jump up, it seems only right North Dakota State does the same.

For the Mountain West, the conference has to make moves to maintain its status as the best mid-major conference. The current twelve-team format it has is no issue; it will eventually have to expand by at least two more teams in the next decade. Adding North Dakota State will give the Mountain West more credibility if it has a team make a run for the championship.

3. Georgia State drops down to FCS. The story of the Massachusetts Minutemen is one transitioning schools should take note of. Massachusetts was a competitive team in the FCS’ Atlantic 10 and the Colonial Athletic Association and posted three seasons with at least ten wins in the 2000s. The team then moved up to the Mid-American Conference in 2012, and the results were catastrophic.

The Minutemen not only lost 31 games in their three years in the conference, but they also lost a great deal of money due to poor attendance. The Minutemen are destined to leave the Mid-American Conference after the upcoming season, leaving them with the likely scenario of moving back to the FCS level.

Georgia State faces the same situation as Massachusetts, minus the prior success. The Panthers started playing football as an FCS Independent in the 2011 with head coach Bill Curry and had decent results as a brand-new team, ending their first year with a 6-5 record. After two poor seasons in 2011 and 2012, Georgia State moved up to the Sun Belt Conference. The results were predictable. The Panthers have one win in 23 games as an FBS team.

The problem for Georgia State is it is not even competitive. Their lone victory came in a one-point game against FCS-team, Abilene Christian, and they’ve lost seven conference games by 21 points or more. Nobody wins with Georgia State playing in the Sun Belt, so a move down is a must.

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